By the end of the year, the car market was lively, and new energy vehicles emerged one after another. The stable performance of the car market in November gave the market more confidence.

According to the data provided by the State Financial Supervision and Administration (formerly the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission), the number of passenger car insurance reached 1.974 million in November. According to the law of the past car market, after the "gold nine silver ten", sales in November will fall.

In fact, instead of falling back, sales in November rose slightly by 0.8 per cent month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate was the highest in the second half of the year - 21.9 per cent.

In the domestic passenger car market, with a good trend in November, the total number of risks from January to November this year reached 19.167 million, an increase of 6.7%. So far this year, monthly sales have exceeded 1.9 million units in five months.

In terms of the domestic passenger car market, we found the data of the China Automobile Association and the Passenger Federation as a comparison. The three groups of data showed double growth with the same quarter, indicating that the overall car market is good.

Among them, the data of CAAM comes from the production and wholesale volume provided by manufacturers; The association's data comes from wholesale and retail sales provided by dealers; New car insurance volume data is the number of consumers after buying a new car insurance, by the State Financial Administration statistics.

There are many factors contributing to the positive trend of the car market, mainly the "Double 11" car purchase promotion has played a great effect, and a large number of new products were released during the Guangzhou Auto Show. On the other hand, the policies of car companies and local governments to expand automobile consumption also helped the car market to have a good performance in November.

Fuel vehicles increased year-on-year for two consecutive months

On the risk data show that fuel vehicles fell for two consecutive months, down 2.9% in November, sales of 1.204 million units, but new energy vehicle sales increased for four consecutive months, up 7.3% in November, to 770 thousand units.

It is worth noting that although the base of new energy vehicles is not large, the month-on-month increase of 52,000 vehicles in November is much higher than the month-on-month decline of 36,000 fuel vehicles, so the entire car market shows the phenomenon of "carry-over at the end of the year".

To review, the number of insured vehicles in November was 1.974 million, an increase of 0.8% month-on-month and 21.9% year-on-year. That month's year-on-year increase was the highest in the second half of the year.

Compared with the same period last year, the sales of fuel vehicles increased in October and November, of which the increase in November was 11.0%, an increase of 120,000 units; New energy vehicles have maintained a double-digit high growth rate since February, with an increase of 43.9% in November, an increase of 235,000 units.

From the above year-on-year data, it can be seen that new energy vehicles not only have a large increase, but also a large increment, which has played a key role in boosting the entire car market. Of course, the contribution of fuel vehicles can not be ignored.

In addition, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased from 22.5% at the beginning of the year to 39.0%, and the overall trend was on the rise, but it turned in April and fell slightly from the previous month. This is mainly because of the national six B switch and Citroen's steep reduction of 90,000 yuan in March, which set off a big promotion of fuel vehicles. Looking at the caliber of the Passenger Association and the China Automobile Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November was 40.4% and 40.1%, respectively, and the three data were basically the same.

In addition, the "gold nine silver ten" rule seems to have broken down in the fuel vehicle market. From the perspective of the fuel vehicle market alone, this year's "gold nine silver ten" is also not obvious, with sales in August, September, October and November of 1.256 million, 1.282 million, 1.240 million and 1.204 million, respectively. It can be seen that although the sales performance of fuel vehicles in October was higher than that in November, it was less than that in August.

In November, the car market not only exceeded expectations, but also the dealer inventory coefficient fell year-on-year and month-on-month, restoring a healthy level.

According to the data provided by the China Automobile Circulation Association, in November, the inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.43, down 15.9% from the previous month and 23.9% from the same period last year. This is the first time since the second half of the year that inventory levels are below the warning line.

The car market is expected to exceed the pre-epidemic level in 2023

From the data of the past five years, the sales volume in November this year is second only to the same period in 2020.

From the policy point of view, the Ministry of Commerce in the second half of this year to carry out the "hundred cities linkage" auto festival and "thousands of counties and towns" new energy vehicle consumption season activities, the effect has shown, while many have issued new consumption policies, and corporate promotion to form a stable support for the car market at the end of the year.

In the automobile market, technology, configuration, price volume, one side is the fierce competition in the market, and the other side reduces cost and increases efficiency. The price war has continued from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. At the same time, the overall price of lithium carbonate this year has shown a downward trend, falling from the high level last year, which provides a base for the price reduction of new energy vehicles.

Pulled to the performance of the past five years, in the first November of this year, the cumulative sales volume of the passenger car market was 19.167 million, exceeding the pre-epidemic level, an increase of 6.7%. As long as a stable situation is guaranteed in December, the sales level of the automobile market throughout the year will steadily exceed the performance before the epidemic.

According to several media reports, BYD, Volkswagen, Chevrolet, Zhiji, zero Run and other car companies launched preferential policies for car purchases in December. Whether it is a new car or an old car, or a good seller, the preferential promotion policy continues.

In terms of fuel vehicles, SAIC Volkswagen Tuang, Lavide, Tuyue, Passat and other models, the discount ranges from 30,000 yuan to 58,000 yuan; Chevrolet family up to the highest discount of 60,000 yuan; Changan Auchan Z6, X5 PLUS car series cash dropped to as high as 30,000 yuan.

In terms of new energy vehicles, some models of BYD Dynasty network and Ocean network enjoy a discount of 2,000 yuan to 7,000 to 9,000 yuan; Changan Qiyuan three models enjoy the preferential rights and interests of up to 40,000 yuan, including 1,999 yuan to up to 10,000 yuan in cash for car purchase; Zhiji LS6 enjoys the "warm winter limited time rights" worth 37,600 yuan; Roewe D7 DMH hybrid version to enjoy 2,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan purchase; Zero Run all models maximum cash discount of 10,000 yuan.

In addition to policies and car companies, changes in the macroeconomic situation will directly affect the trend of the automotive industry.

The property market is low and the car market is booming

Some experts pointed out that the good trend of large-scale consumption of new energy vehicles has promoted the improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity, and benefited the high-quality development of the economy.

Rather than saying that the steady growth of the car market has led to the high-quality development of the entire economy, it is better to say that the price war has stimulated the purchasing sentiment of consumers. Why do you say that? Domestic consumers tend to be rational, the rise of cost-effective consumption and become a consumption trend, summed up in a word is "not to buy, but more favor cost-effective."

In November, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.5% on a month-on-month basis, and the national producer price index (PPI) fell 3.0% year-on-year, down 0.3% on a month-on-month basis. The year-on-year and month-on-month declines in CPI and PPI increased slightly in November.

Industry insiders said that in November, affected by factors such as food and energy price fluctuations, CPI declined; The expansion of the PPI decline was mainly due to the drag on the prices of means of production, especially in the upstream industry.

Specifically, affected by the downward impact of international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices fell by 2.8%, the largest decline this year, affecting CPI down by about 0.1 percentage points. From the equipment manufacturing industry, the price of lithium-ion battery manufacturing fell by 11.6%, the price of computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing fell by 3.5%, and the price of automobile manufacturing fell by 1.6%.

The ex-factory prices of industrial enterprises are generally under pressure, and the falling prices of means of production reflect the reduction of production costs or the intensification of market competition, which is consistent with the "cost reduction and efficiency increase" often talked about by enterprises under the price war.

Oil prices and lithium battery prices are closely related to the automotive market. Rising oil prices increase the cost of using oil vehicles; The cost of lithium batteries has fallen, and the price of new energy vehicles is expected to drop again.

As one of the fundamentals of China's macro economy, the property market has attracted much attention. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in November this year, the transaction scale of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased, and the sales price overall continued to decline. In terms of the number of cities up and down, the number of cities in which new home prices rose month-on-month in 70 cities continued to decrease, from 11 in October to 9.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, mentioned in the analysis of sales in November that from the impact of the property market, the property market is low and the car market is booming. With the decline in real estate, Chinese consumers' enthusiasm for investment in house purchases has returned to rationality, so the recent demand for car purchases has continued to recover. With the end of the Fed's interest rate hike, the gradual recovery of the world economy, coupled with the return of the domestic property market to the low level, will promote the stable growth of the passenger car market.

peroration

The car market has entered the year-end sprint stage, and the Federation expects that the narrow passenger car retail market in December will be about 2.27 million, and the new energy retail market will be about 940 million. The annual narrow passenger car retail market was about 21.62 million, an increase of 5.2%, and the new energy retail was about 7.75 million.

Recently, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized in the deployment of 2024 economic work, "boost" new energy vehicles and other bulk consumption, which is the meeting mentioned new energy vehicle consumption for two consecutive years, the change point is that last year was "support" changed to "boost" this year, enough to see the importance of new energy vehicles in policy.

Of course, whether it is the strategic level of automobile companies or the macroeconomic level, it has led to the vigorous development of the automobile industry. In turn, the steady improvement of the automobile industry promotes the sound and healthy development of the entire economic environment.